Seasonality Meets Skepticism as Bull Market Nears Fourth Birthday

Positioning has turned two-sided as a statistically favorable seasonal stretch begins against a backdrop of lengthening bull-market duration. With the AI-led advance approaching its fourth anniversary, strategists are weighing historical precedent — which favors continued gains through this period — against valuation dispersion and narrowing leadership. Corporate signals are mixed but informative. Apple's cumulative iPhone price increases of up to $300, with analysts anticipating further hikes, demonstrate that premium consumer pricing power remains intact and provides an inflation-resilient earnings anchor for the index's largest constituent. Palantir's flat year-to-date performance, down 0.5%, illustrates how even consensus AI winners have stalled as multiples digest prior gains. On the cyclical side, the picture is softer: Masco used the Deutsche Bank summit to defend growth investment amid weak housing demand, and Aecom shares declined on its earnings print. Idiosyncratic strength persists in resources and specialty names, with Ur-Energy reporting stronger production as its uranium ramp advances, HighPeak Energy topping estimates and Consolidated Water rising 7.7% on a revenue beat — evidence that stock selection, rather than beta, is doing the work in this phase of the cycle.