INDYFINANCE
2026-10-17 UTC
 

When a management team forecasts its own results, how close does it come?

Not whether the company beat the analysts — that is commodity data, published everywhere. This measures a company’s own guidance against its own reported outcome, quarter after quarter, per management team. Some companies guide low so they can clear the bar they set. Some overpromise. A few are simply accurate. That difference is argued about on every earnings call and published nowhere.

100 companies in the S&P 100 · 1483 forecasts on record · 681 resolved · 23 companies past the 6-forecast threshold · 16 Dec 2021 to 13 Oct 2026

The strongest finding on the board
Intel (INTC) — Guides optimistically — has come in below its own forecast in 6 of 24 forecasts.n = 24

−78.0% from the midpoint of its own range, on average. The clearest signal in the record: a large, consistent lean measured across 24 resolved forecasts rather than a couple of noisy quarters.

Above guidance13In line5Below guidance6
Most reliable guidersall →

Smallest average distance between what they said and what they reported.

  1. 1Applied Materials0.13%n=26
  2. 2Accenture0.46%n=12
  3. 3Broadcom0.59%n=15
  4. 4Meta Platforms0.63%n=17
  5. 5Amazon (company)0.67%n=13
Least reliable guidersall →

Their own forecasts have been the furthest from what followed.

  1. 1Intel158.24%n=24
  2. 2Abbott Laboratories34.08%n=13
  3. 3Micron Technology24.41%n=34
  4. 4Pfizer17.61%n=6
  5. 5Salesforce15.14%n=17
Sets the bar lowestall →

Lands highest inside its own range — the shape of a company managing expectations.

  1. 1Abbott Laboratories+35.4%n=13
  2. 2Micron Technology+30.0%n=34
  3. 3Salesforce+15.3%n=17
  4. 4Qualcomm+13.0%n=40
  5. 5Nvidia+5.7%n=17
Reporting in the next seven daysfull week →
ExpectedCompanynVerdict on its own forecasting
20 Oct 2026Texas Instruments TXN30Guides conservatively — lands inside its own range but in the upper half of it, averaging +5.4% against the midpoint across 30 forecasts.
22 Oct 2026Intel INTC24Guides optimistically — has come in below its own forecast in 6 of 24 forecasts.
20 Oct 2026The Coca-Cola Company KO0Below the 6-forecast threshold — no verdict published.
20 Oct 2026Capital One COF0Below the 6-forecast threshold — no verdict published.
20 Oct 2026Danaher Corporation DHR0Below the 6-forecast threshold — no verdict published.
20 Oct 2026GE Aerospace GE1Below the 6-forecast threshold — no verdict published.
20 Oct 2026General Motors GM4Below the 6-forecast threshold — no verdict published.
20 Oct 2026Intuitive Surgical ISRG0Below the 6-forecast threshold — no verdict published.
What this is, and what it is not

Everything is primary-sourced. Both halves of every row — the forecast and the outcome — are read from the company’s own SEC filings, and both are linked. Nothing here is an analyst estimate, a consensus number, or a licensed feed.

Withdrawn is not a miss. Companies pull guidance for real reasons. Those forecasts are recorded as withdrawn, kept visible, and counted against nobody.

Small samples get no verdict. Below 6 resolved forecasts a company shows its record and nothing else, and never appears in a ranking.

It measures forecasting, not quality. A company that guides conservatively is not a better or worse investment than one that does not. It is a company whose guidance you should read differently.

It is not advice. We publish a record and draw no conclusion about what anyone should do with it. That is both the regulatory line and, we think, the stronger editorial position.

Unflattering results are published too. Including for companies that would prefer otherwise. Read the full methodology.