When a management team forecasts its own results, how close does it come?
Not whether the company beat the analysts — that is commodity data, published everywhere. This measures a company’s own guidance against its own reported outcome, quarter after quarter, per management team. Some companies guide low so they can clear the bar they set. Some overpromise. A few are simply accurate. That difference is argued about on every earnings call and published nowhere.
100 companies in the S&P 100 · 1473 forecasts on record · 677 resolved · 23 companies past the 6-forecast threshold · 16 Dec 2021 to 01 Sept 2026
Across 24 resolved forecasts its results have landed an average of −78.0% from the midpoint of the range it set for itself, inside ranges averaging 8.0% wide.
Smallest average distance between what they said and what they reported.
- 1Applied Materials0.13%n=26
- 2Accenture0.46%n=12
- 3Broadcom0.62%n=14
- 4Meta Platforms0.63%n=17
- 5Amazon (company)0.67%n=13
Their own forecasts have been the furthest from what followed.
- 1Intel158.24%n=24
- 2Abbott Laboratories34.08%n=13
- 3Micron Technology24.41%n=34
- 4Pfizer17.61%n=6
- 5Salesforce15.14%n=17
Lands highest inside its own range — the shape of a company managing expectations.
- 1Abbott Laboratories+35.4%n=13
- 2Micron Technology+30.0%n=34
- 3Salesforce+15.3%n=17
- 4Qualcomm+13.0%n=40
- 5Nvidia+5.7%n=17
| Expected | Company | n | Verdict on its own forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Sept 2026 | Broadcom AVGO | 14 | Guides conservatively — has come in above its own forecast in 8 of 14 quarters. |
| 08 Sept 2026 | Oracle Corporation ORCL | 1 | Below the 6-forecast threshold — no verdict published. |
Everything is primary-sourced. Both halves of every row — the forecast and the outcome — are read from the company’s own SEC filings, and both are linked. Nothing here is an analyst estimate, a consensus number, or a licensed feed.
Withdrawn is not a miss. Companies pull guidance for real reasons. Those forecasts are recorded as withdrawn, kept visible, and counted against nobody.
Small samples get no verdict. Below 6 resolved forecasts a company shows its record and nothing else, and never appears in a ranking.
It measures forecasting, not quality. A company that guides conservatively is not a better or worse investment than one that does not. It is a company whose guidance you should read differently.
It is not advice. We publish a record and draw no conclusion about what anyone should do with it. That is both the regulatory line and, we think, the stronger editorial position.
Unflattering results are published too. Including for companies that would prefer otherwise. Read the full methodology.