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Oil Majors Book $93bn Windfall From Iran Conflict as Geopolitical Risk Premium Persists

Integrated energy producers captured an extraordinary earnings uplift from war-driven crude pricing, even as escalatory rhetoric from Israeli minister Itamar Ben-Gvir signals the Middle East risk premium is unlikely to decay quickly.

The world's largest oil companies reaped a $93 billion windfall from the Iran war, a transfer of value from consumers to producers that has materially reset energy sector free cash flow expectations. Continued hardline political signalling in Israel suggests the underlying geopolitical premium remains structurally embedded in crude.

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