Conflict, sanctions, tariffs and the political risk premium embedded in prices.
34 report(s) in the archive
The FTSE 100 slipped alongside a broader tech selloff, while European equities traded sideways ahead of expected sanctions news.
The FTSE 100 and broader European equities moved lower or sideways as investors awaited an Iran sanctions decision alongside a tech-sector selloff.
Crude fell about 1% ahead of a fresh round of US sanctions on Iran, but analysts say the diesel shortage driving refiners' margins has causes that will outlast the war.
Oil dropped roughly 1% ahead of announced US sanctions on Iran, even as reports say the diesel crunch behind refiners' fat margins predates the war and won't end with it.
The Australian fuel refiner posted a record first-half profit as the Iran conflict widened refining margins, even as Bendigo Bank also swung to a profit in the same reporting window.
Ampol logged a record half-year profit with more than a four-fold rise, driven by wider refining margins tied to the Iran war.
Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share gained 1.13% at the close as crude prices rose on fears of new US sanctions against Iran, which Tehran says will fail.
Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share index closed up 1.13% as oil prices climbed on the prospect of new US sanctions on Iran.
Ottawa says it will match Washington tariff for tariff after negotiations broke down, hitting a broad range of US sectors.
Canada will impose retaliatory tariffs across multiple US sectors after trade talks with Washington collapsed, Prime Minister Mark Carney said.
New US sanctions on Iran are expected soon, and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed as both sides escalate rhetoric.
The US and Iran exchanged hostile warnings ahead of new sanctions, and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have stalled as a result.
Gold and silver stage a mid-week surge, sending Wheaton Precious Metals up 11%, as fresh White House escalation against Tehran injects a geopolitical risk premium into commodity markets with policy details still undisclosed.
President Trump's announcement of an unspecified 'crushing economic operation' targeting Iran drove a sharp bid into precious metals, lifting streamers and miners. Wheaton Precious Metals jumped 11% while DRDGOLD reported Q4 results into a strengthening bullion tape.
FLSmidth raises full-year guidance on strong Q2 while Nordic small-caps deliver mixed prints; Africa's critical minerals emerge as the structural story beneath the tape
European shares closed largely unchanged as gains in mining and industrials neutralized renewed geopolitical anxiety around the Middle East. FLSmidth jumped after lifting full-year guidance, while a heavy Nordic earnings slate produced divergent outcomes — Elmera profit up 30%, Xplora margins expanding, Vow and Leroy Seafood under pressure.
White House holds off on punitive duties on select Canadian goods, citing an imminent agreement — a de-escalation that removes a near-term overhang for North American supply chains but leaves the tariff mechanism intact as leverage.
President Trump has paused the planned 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods, saying a trade deal is close. The reprieve eases a key cross-border risk premium, though the administration retains the option to reimpose duties, keeping industrial, auto and materials supply chains on alert.
Middle East escalation fears push crude and sovereign yields higher simultaneously, leaving regional benchmarks with no defensive refuge and extending a multi-session drawdown.
European bourses are on track for their longest consecutive losing streak since 2025 as geopolitical risk premia lift oil and bond yields together, squeezing both cyclical and defensive exposures.
The current bull market has absorbed a pandemic, the fastest tightening cycle in four decades and multiple geopolitical shocks — yet delivered the best cumulative return in over 25 years, reframing the cost of tactical caution.
Equities have posted their strongest multi-year advance in more than a quarter-century despite a relentless sequence of macro shocks, sharpening the case that time in the market has dominated attempts to time it.
Treasury yields hold in a tight range ahead of the FOMC record while a sharp escalation in North American trade friction and renewed pressure on Iran keep the geopolitical risk premium elevated.
Canada is bracing for 50% US tariffs covering roughly $20 billion in goods, a material escalation in North American trade friction with direct implications for cross-border industrials, autos and materials. Treasury yields held steady as investors deferred positioning until the release of Federal Reserve minutes, leaving duration effectively unhedged against a tariff-driven inflation impulse. European bourses were mixed to lower, with Poland's WIG30 down 1.26% and Turkey's BIST 100 off 0.28%, while Tehran's leadership weighed the risk of further economic pain and domestic unrest if Washington tightens sanctions pressure.
The defense prime elevates an internal executive at a moment of elevated program backlog and geopolitical demand, signalling continuity over strategic reset.
L3Harris named insider Sam Mehta chief executive as Christopher Kubasik steps down, an orderly succession that points to strategic continuity at the defense contractor. The move lands alongside a broader wave of executive reshuffling across financials and healthcare, including Citigroup's appointment of Adam Clark as wealth planning head.
JPMorgan's debanking of Polymarket, Kalshi's clash with Nevada over geofencing penalties, a 200,000-customer breach at Israel's Bits of Gold and Trump Media's retreat from bitcoin mark an inflection in digital-asset risk pricing.
A cluster of disclosures has exposed the operational and regulatory fragility of the digital-asset and prediction-market complex. JPMorgan cut banking ties with Polymarket over regulatory concerns, Kalshi is contesting a Nevada geofencing fine, Israel's largest crypto broker suffered a breach exposing personal and bank data on 200,000 customers, and Trump Media is pivoting away from bitcoin after nearly $200 million in losses.
President frames joint exercises as sending a 'hostile' signal to Pyongyang, a policy pivot with implications for defence spending assumptions and regional risk premia.
President Trump has asked the Pentagon to scale back joint military exercises with South Korea, characterising them as provocative toward North Korea. The move injects fresh uncertainty into North Asian security arrangements and the alliance-linked defence procurement outlook.
Integrated energy producers captured an extraordinary earnings uplift from war-driven crude pricing, even as escalatory rhetoric from Israeli minister Itamar Ben-Gvir signals the Middle East risk premium is unlikely to decay quickly.
The world's largest oil companies reaped a $93 billion windfall from the Iran war, a transfer of value from consumers to producers that has materially reset energy sector free cash flow expectations. Continued hardline political signalling in Israel suggests the underlying geopolitical premium remains structurally embedded in crude.
More than 600 drones targeted the Russian capital and logistics nodes overnight while Moscow retaliated against Ukrainian metallurgical assets, reintroducing a geopolitical risk premium into energy and industrial metals.
Kyiv escalated its deep-strike campaign with over 600 drones directed at Moscow and Russian logistics infrastructure, one of the largest such operations of the season, as Russian forces hit a Ukrainian steel plant. The exchange raises the probability of supply disruption in energy and metals markets.
German direct investment into the United States fell to a three-year low, according to fresh data, as tariff volatility and regulatory unpredictability push Europe's largest industrial base to defer American expansion plans.
German companies cut US investment to the lowest level in three years, a signal that transatlantic capital flows are being re-priced around policy risk rather than fundamentals.
Allegations against Hengli over sanctioned oil purchases arrive alongside renewed Russian strikes on Kyiv, keeping geopolitical risk premia embedded in energy and freight markets.
Chinese refiner Hengli has been accused of funding Iran through purchases of sanctioned crude, escalating enforcement risk for Asian teapot refiners. Simultaneously, Russian missile strikes ignited fires across Kyiv, reinforcing the persistence of conflict-driven supply uncertainty.
Unresolved sticking points leave North American supply chains facing a punitive tariff cliff, with materials, autos and energy inputs most exposed
Negotiators from the United States and Canada remain apart on key issues as a 50% tariff deadline approaches, injecting fresh cross-border trade risk into an integrated manufacturing base that has already absorbed multiple rounds of policy volatility.