MARKET REPORT

Higher oil offsets bond relief as European shares stall

Thursday's European session left the main indices little changed, with the damage concentrated in single stocks: JD Sports, GN Store Nord, Aegon and Orkla all fell.

Executive takeaway

European equities went nowhere in the 20 August session as a rise in crude prices cancelled out a recovery in government bonds, leaving individual earnings reactions to drive most of the movement.

Newsroom graphic
Crude's recent path against a European index that keeps grinding higher. The session's stall was blamed on higher oil offsetting a bond recovery, but the three-month picture shows whether Thursday's crude move is noise or the start of the sustained rise that would actually cut into industrial and airline margins.

Crude's recent path against a European index that keeps grinding higher

The session's stall was blamed on higher oil offsetting a bond recovery, but the three-month picture shows whether Thursday's crude move is noise or the start of the sustained rise that would actually cut into industrial and airline margins.

Live market prices for front-month WTI crude futures (CL=F) and the Euro Stoxx 50 (^STOXX50E), rebased to 100 at the window start.

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<figure><a href="https://www.indy.finance/news/higher-oil-offsets-bond-relief-as-european-shares-stall"><img src="https://www.indy.finance/news/higher-oil-offsets-bond-relief-as-european-shares-stall/graphic.svg" alt="Crude's recent path against a European index that keeps grinding higher" width="1200" height="675"></a><figcaption>Crude's recent path against a European index that keeps grinding higher — <a href="https://www.indy.finance/news/higher-oil-offsets-bond-relief-as-european-shares-stall">Indy Finance</a></figcaption></figure>
European shares were muted on Thursday, 20 August. A recovery in government bond prices, which lowers borrowing costs, would normally help equities. It was offset by higher oil prices, which raise input costs for most of the region's manufacturers and airlines. The net result was an index that barely moved. Underneath that flat surface, the dispersion was wide. JD Sports fell sharply, GN Store Nord dropped after the Danish hearing-aid and headset maker cut its growth outlook, and both Aegon and Orkla slid. On the other side, Kinepolis rose on first-half results and Holmen Group's shares gained after a solid second quarter. Outside the listed-equity screen, Standard Life announced a £2bn pension risk transfer partnership, a deal type in which an insurer takes on a company's pension obligations. What is unresolved is whether the oil move is a one-session drag or the start of a margin problem. A single day of firmer crude does not change earnings estimates. Several weeks of it would, particularly for the industrial and consumer names that have carried the region's index this year. Data elsewhere in Europe pointed to still-warm labour costs, with Polish corporate wages up 6.8% in July, ahead of forecasts.
What would change this view

If crude gives back the session's gain and European benchmarks close higher on Friday 21 August, the oil-versus-bonds standoff described here was a one-day artefact rather than a live constraint.

Wire sources cited

Produced automatically by the INDY NEWS Desk from the public wire sources cited above, and checked against them before publication. Market commentary, not investment advice.