Policy decisions, minutes and speeches from the Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ and their peers — and how the market reprices around them.
23 report(s) in the archive
The concentration comes as U.S. national debt crossed $40 trillion in August, intensifying scrutiny of Treasury market structure.
Academy Securities strategist Peter Tchir noted the Federal Reserve owns more than 50% of all Treasury bonds maturing 10 to 15 years from now, a concentration highlighted as U.S. debt passed the $40 trillion mark.
Scott Bessent's Treasury has intervened directly in the bond market, leaving incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh with fewer options as the FOMC weighs its next move.
The U.S. Treasury's direct intervention in the bond market complicates Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's policy options ahead of upcoming FOMC decisions.
The milestone arrived alongside the record of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting, putting fiscal supply and rate policy in front of bond buyers at once.
US government debt crossed $40 trillion on the same day the Federal Reserve published the minutes of its most recent meeting, a combination that puts the size of Treasury issuance and the path of interest rates in the same conversation.
Sovereign yields retreat from multi-decade highs, but Tokyo's shrinking policy toolkit leaves JGB market exposed as ECB's Rehn signals benign wage dynamics in the euro area
A synchronized global sovereign bond selloff paused as long-end yields backed off multi-decade highs, but the reprieve looks tactical rather than structural. Japan sits at the epicenter, with policymakers offering few credible answers as the rout threatens fiscal spending plans. In Europe, ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn struck a dovish note, saying wage growth remains moderate with no evidence of second-round inflation effects — a divergence that keeps the transatlantic and trans-Pacific rate complex unstable.
Brightmine data show employers granting the smallest wage increases since last autumn, easing the services-inflation constraint that has kept UK rate cuts on a slow path
UK employers raised pay by the least in ten months, according to Brightmine, reinforcing evidence that a loosening labour market is finally translating into softer wage settlements — a precondition the Bank of England has repeatedly cited for further policy easing.
Wall Street's base case shifts to a no-move September barring a dramatic data surprise, with the greenback's slide moderating into North American hours and equities grinding to fresh highs before futures softened.
Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to stand pat at its September meeting absent an outsized data shock, anchoring rate expectations at a moment when the S&P 500 has already registered an all-time high. The dollar has extended losses but is stabilizing, and Monday futures slipped modestly — a pattern consistent with positioning fatigue rather than a change in macro regime.
First Philippine Holdings rejects the US buyout group's offer for its power unit, while Bangko Sentral tempers easing expectations by flagging persistent upside inflation risks.
Two Philippine developments converged: First Philippine Holdings rejected KKR's approach for First Gen shares, and the central bank guided to only gradual inflation easing with risks skewed to the upside — a combination that constrains both M&A repricing and rate-cut positioning.
Stock-index futures were little changed into the new week as investors weigh the policy path, with strategists now openly pricing leadership risk at the Federal Reserve.
U.S. equity futures were broadly flat following a quiet week, with positioning frozen ahead of clearer signals on the Fed's rate trajectory. Commentary around a potential Warsh-led Fed is injecting an institutional-credibility variable into rates markets alongside conventional data dependency.
Prediction-market pricing for a September tightening has plunged, but analysts warn positioning is vulnerable to a hawkish repricing if broadening earnings strength pressures the inflation path
Implied odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike have fallen to roughly 25%, a sharp dovish repricing that some strategists argue is complacent. With corporate earnings growth broadening beyond technology and financials positioned as beneficiaries, the risk of a hawkish surprise is being underpriced.
The coming session sequence pairs the two most important global consumer read-throughs with the Federal Reserve's policy transcript, while a 53-year-old lawn and garden retailer's Chapter 11 filing underscores widening stress in discretionary retail.
Alibaba and Walmart headline next week's earnings calendar, offering the cleanest available signal on Chinese and US household spending, with the release of FOMC meeting minutes providing the policy counterpoint. Against that macro backdrop, a 53-year-old lawn and garden retailer is facing Chapter 11 with liquidation on the table. Elsewhere, Bill Gates' foundation portfolio added Home Depot, Alphabet is contending with thousands of lawsuits, and a long-standing Berkshire dividend holding hit an all-time high in Greg Abel's first period at the helm.
Analysts flag credit-market indicators echoing 2007 as Japan's sovereign debt dynamics are cast as a global warning, complicating an already divided rate outlook after a Bank of England economist backed further hikes.
Two independent strands of macro commentary — credit markets 'shooting off 2007-like flares' and a deteriorating Japanese debt picture — are converging into a coherent bear thesis on global financial conditions. A Bank of England economist arguing that growth supports rate hikes removes the assumed policy backstop, leaving risk assets exposed to a higher-for-longer term structure.
Headline CPI up 0.1% and core up 0.2% match consensus, pushing September tightening odds lower and reinforcing the disinflation narrative underpinning risk appetite
July inflation data printed exactly in line with economist estimates, with headline CPI rising 0.1% and core CPI 0.2%. The absence of an upside surprise further reduced already-thin market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting, extending a multi-month arc in which benign price data has steadily removed policy tail risk from equity and credit valuations.
Currency and bullion markets settle into a holding pattern ahead of a US inflation print that will shape the Federal Reserve's autumn policy path, with gold's historic price plateau signaling persistent hedging demand.
The US dollar traded mixed and gold held above $4,400 an ounce as investors positioned defensively ahead of the July consumer price index release. The muted cross-asset action reflects a market unwilling to take directional risk into a data point widely viewed as decisive for the Fed's next move.
President says he spoke with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh last week as strategists question whether a debt-laden Treasury can tolerate genuine price stability; PCE methodology critique adds to credibility debate
President Trump disclosed direct contact with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, sharpening focus on central bank independence just as Warsh recommits to a 2% inflation target. Analysts argue the arithmetic of US debt service makes sustained disinflation politically and fiscally improbable, while separate research questions whether the Fed's preferred PCE gauge is even measuring the economy accurately.
The bank reiterated its expectation that the BOJ will raise rates in October, as the yen remains under pressure.
Market commentary described the new Federal Reserve chair's latest policy decision as a credibility shock, while separate analysis argued the central bank is falling short of its statutory mandate.
US index futures were little changed before a key inflation report, with a weakening jobs picture feeding expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
TD Cowen's policy team estimates a 25% chance the Trump administration succeeds in removing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.
Analysis of the Bank of Japan's policy outlook points to Japanese government bond market conditions under Prime Minister Takaichi as a constraint on further tightening.
Kevin Warsh has declined to provide forward guidance at two consecutive Federal Reserve meetings since taking over as chair, a break from recent central bank communication practice.