Which companies actually forecast themselves accurately
23 of the 100 companies in the S&P 100 have issued at least 6 quantified forecasts we could resolve against their own subsequent results. They are ranked below by average deviation — how far, in percent, a company’s reported figure landed outside the range it had given itself. Landing anywhere inside that range counts as zero, which is why the range-width column is here too: a company that guides a five percent range and lands in it has done something different from one that guides a one percent range and lands in it.
Closest to its own word at the top. Ties go to the larger sample. Only companies with 6 or more resolved forecasts appear.
| # | Company | n | Distribution | Avg deviation | Avg vs midpoint | Range width | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Applied MaterialsAMAT | 26 | 0.13% | +4.4% | 15.0% | Guides conservatively | |
| 2 | AccentureACN | 12 | 0.46% | +1.5% | 3.5% | Guides conservatively | |
| 3 | BroadcomAVGO | 14 | 0.62% | +1.0% | point | Guides conservatively | |
| 4 | Meta PlatformsMETA | 17 | 0.63% | +3.4% | 7.0% | Guides conservatively | |
| 5 | Amazon (company)AMZN | 13 | 0.67% | +2.3% | 3.4% | Guides conservatively | |
| 6 | AMDAMD | 13 | 0.70% | +3.2% | 8.6% | Guides conservatively | |
| 7 | Texas InstrumentsTXN | 30 | 1.38% | +5.4% | 12.6% | Guides conservatively | |
| 8 | Adobe Inc.ADBE | 39 | 1.96% | +2.4% | 1.2% | Guides conservatively | |
| 9 | Linde plcLIN | 14 | 2.49% | +3.8% | 2.8% | Guides conservatively | |
| 10 | Palantir TechnologiesPLTR | 17 | 3.64% | +3.9% | 0.5% | Guides conservatively | |
| 11 | CiscoCSCO | 38 | 3.72% | +4.7% | 3.8% | Guides conservatively | |
| 12 | Lam ResearchLRCX | 55 | 3.90% | +2.4% | 17.5% | Guides conservatively | |
| 13 | AmgenAMGN | 6 | 5.63% | +3.3% | 8.0% | Guides conservatively | |
| 14 | NvidiaNVDA | 17 | 5.89% | +5.7% | 4.0% | Guides conservatively | |
| 15 | Emerson ElectricEMR | 24 | 8.76% | +1.9% | 4.2% | Guides conservatively | |
| 16 | QualcommQCOM | 40 | 10.35% | +13.0% | 8.9% | Guides conservatively | |
| 17 | WalmartWMT | 9 | 12.47% | +0.8% | 3.5% | Guides conservatively | |
| 18 | Netflix, Inc.NFLX | 20 | 15.10% | +0.2% | point | Guides conservatively | |
| 19 | SalesforceCRM | 17 | 15.14% | +15.3% | 0.8% | Guides conservatively | |
| 20 | PfizerPFE | 6 | 17.61% | +0.4% | 6.1% | Guides conservatively | |
| 21 | Micron TechnologyMU | 34 | 24.41% | +30.0% | 11.9% | Guides conservatively | |
| 22 | Abbott LaboratoriesABT | 13 | 34.08% | +35.4% | 3.9% | Guides conservatively | |
| 23 | IntelINTC | 24 | 158.24% | −78.0% | 8.0% | Guides optimistically |
Least reliable guiders
Average position of the reported figure within the range the company gave itself. A large positive number is the signature of a management team that guides where it is confident of clearing, quarter after quarter. A negative one is a team that keeps falling short of its own midpoint.
| # | Company | n | Distribution | Avg deviation | Avg vs midpoint | Range width | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abbott LaboratoriesABT | 13 | 34.08% | +35.4% | 3.9% | Guides conservatively | |
| 2 | Micron TechnologyMU | 34 | 24.41% | +30.0% | 11.9% | Guides conservatively | |
| 3 | SalesforceCRM | 17 | 15.14% | +15.3% | 0.8% | Guides conservatively | |
| 4 | QualcommQCOM | 40 | 10.35% | +13.0% | 8.9% | Guides conservatively | |
| 5 | NvidiaNVDA | 17 | 5.89% | +5.7% | 4.0% | Guides conservatively | |
| 6 | Texas InstrumentsTXN | 30 | 1.38% | +5.4% | 12.6% | Guides conservatively | |
| 7 | CiscoCSCO | 38 | 3.72% | +4.7% | 3.8% | Guides conservatively | |
| 8 | Applied MaterialsAMAT | 26 | 0.13% | +4.4% | 15.0% | Guides conservatively | |
| 9 | Palantir TechnologiesPLTR | 17 | 3.64% | +3.9% | 0.5% | Guides conservatively | |
| 10 | Linde plcLIN | 14 | 2.49% | +3.8% | 2.8% | Guides conservatively | |
| 11 | Meta PlatformsMETA | 17 | 0.63% | +3.4% | 7.0% | Guides conservatively | |
| 12 | AmgenAMGN | 6 | 5.63% | +3.3% | 8.0% | Guides conservatively | |
| 13 | AMDAMD | 13 | 0.70% | +3.2% | 8.6% | Guides conservatively | |
| 14 | Adobe Inc.ADBE | 39 | 1.96% | +2.4% | 1.2% | Guides conservatively | |
| 15 | Lam ResearchLRCX | 55 | 3.90% | +2.4% | 17.5% | Guides conservatively | |
| 16 | Amazon (company)AMZN | 13 | 0.67% | +2.3% | 3.4% | Guides conservatively | |
| 17 | Emerson ElectricEMR | 24 | 8.76% | +1.9% | 4.2% | Guides conservatively | |
| 18 | AccentureACN | 12 | 0.46% | +1.5% | 3.5% | Guides conservatively | |
| 19 | BroadcomAVGO | 14 | 0.62% | +1.0% | point | Guides conservatively | |
| 20 | WalmartWMT | 9 | 12.47% | +0.8% | 3.5% | Guides conservatively | |
| 21 | PfizerPFE | 6 | 17.61% | +0.4% | 6.1% | Guides conservatively | |
| 22 | Netflix, Inc.NFLX | 20 | 15.10% | +0.2% | point | Guides conservatively | |
| 23 | IntelINTC | 24 | 158.24% | −78.0% | 8.0% | Guides optimistically |
These companies have issued quantified guidance, but fewer than 6 forecasts have resolved so far. Their records are published in full on their own pages and they appear in no ranking on this site. A hundred-percent record from three forecasts is not a finding, and publishing it as one is the fastest way to lose a reader who knows that.
We read every quarterly earnings release these companies have filed since 2021 and found no forecast expressed as a dollar figure or a range of dollar figures. That is a real and common practice, not a hole in our data — some managements guide only in percentage growth terms, some guide only on the earnings call, and some decline to guide at all. It is the clearest argument for a fixed coverage universe: without one, there would be no way to tell this apart from us having failed to look.
This is a factual measurement of forecasting, not a ranking of companies and not investment advice. A conservative guider is not a better business than an optimistic one — it is a business whose guidance you should read differently. Methodology and change log.