Crude oil extended gains as Iran threatened retaliation for US attacks, with shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowing in response, Investing.com reported. Iran separately warned it could target Gulf energy infrastructure directly, adding another layer of risk premium to prices.
Despite the disruption threats, oil has not broken above $100 a barrel. An Investing.com explainer on the gap noted that ample spare capacity and demand concerns have so far offset the geopolitical risk premium that might otherwise be expected from threats to a chokepoint that carries a large share of global seaborne oil trade.
What's unresolved is whether Iran follows through on any of its threats. A confirmed strike on Gulf energy infrastructure, rather than a threat, would be the trigger most likely to push crude decisively past the $100 level that has so far held.