United States

US macro, policy and market structure.

56 report(s) in the archive

Fed Holds Over Half of All Bonds Due in 10 to 15 Years, Straining Debt Backdrop

The concentration comes as U.S. national debt crossed $40 trillion in August, intensifying scrutiny of Treasury market structure.

Academy Securities strategist Peter Tchir noted the Federal Reserve owns more than 50% of all Treasury bonds maturing 10 to 15 years from now, a concentration highlighted as U.S. debt passed the $40 trillion mark.

MARKET REPORT

Trump Threatens 'Crushing Economic Operation' Against Iran as Precious Metals Spike

Gold and silver stage a mid-week surge, sending Wheaton Precious Metals up 11%, as fresh White House escalation against Tehran injects a geopolitical risk premium into commodity markets with policy details still undisclosed.

President Trump's announcement of an unspecified 'crushing economic operation' targeting Iran drove a sharp bid into precious metals, lifting streamers and miners. Wheaton Precious Metals jumped 11% while DRDGOLD reported Q4 results into a strengthening bullion tape.

BREAKING STORYBULLISH

Trump Throws White House Weight Behind Crypto Market-Structure Bill as Bitcoin Jumps 5.5%

President presses Congress on the stalled Clarity Act during an Innovation Advisory Committee gathering of exchange chiefs; HYPE surges 11% after Trump says CFTC Chair Selig is working to onshore Hyperliquid's perpetual futures venue.

A White House crypto event turned into a policy catalyst: Trump publicly urged Congress to advance the Clarity Act, which has stalled in the Senate over provisions that fail to constrain the president's own digital-asset ventures. Bitcoin rallied 5.5% and Hyperliquid's HYPE token jumped 11% on comments that the CFTC is working to bring the offshore perpetuals platform into the U.S. regulatory perimeter.

SPECIAL REPORTBULLISH

Trump Pauses 50% Canada Tariff Threat as Ottawa Talks Near Deal

White House holds off on punitive duties on select Canadian goods, citing an imminent agreement — a de-escalation that removes a near-term overhang for North American supply chains but leaves the tariff mechanism intact as leverage.

President Trump has paused the planned 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods, saying a trade deal is close. The reprieve eases a key cross-border risk premium, though the administration retains the option to reimpose duties, keeping industrial, auto and materials supply chains on alert.

SPECIAL REPORT

Canada Faces 50% US Tariffs on $20 Billion of Goods as Bond Market Waits on Fed Minutes

Treasury yields hold in a tight range ahead of the FOMC record while a sharp escalation in North American trade friction and renewed pressure on Iran keep the geopolitical risk premium elevated.

Canada is bracing for 50% US tariffs covering roughly $20 billion in goods, a material escalation in North American trade friction with direct implications for cross-border industrials, autos and materials. Treasury yields held steady as investors deferred positioning until the release of Federal Reserve minutes, leaving duration effectively unhedged against a tariff-driven inflation impulse. European bourses were mixed to lower, with Poland's WIG30 down 1.26% and Turkey's BIST 100 off 0.28%, while Tehran's leadership weighed the risk of further economic pain and domestic unrest if Washington tightens sanctions pressure.

BREAKING STORYBEARISH

Goldman Sees Fed on Hold in September as Dollar Stabilizes and S&P 500 Prints Record

Wall Street's base case shifts to a no-move September barring a dramatic data surprise, with the greenback's slide moderating into North American hours and equities grinding to fresh highs before futures softened.

Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to stand pat at its September meeting absent an outsized data shock, anchoring rate expectations at a moment when the S&P 500 has already registered an all-time high. The dollar has extended losses but is stabilizing, and Monday futures slipped modestly — a pattern consistent with positioning fatigue rather than a change in macro regime.

SPECIAL REPORT

Futures Idle as Wall Street Waits for the Fed — and Watches the Warsh Succession Trade

Stock-index futures were little changed into the new week as investors weigh the policy path, with strategists now openly pricing leadership risk at the Federal Reserve.

U.S. equity futures were broadly flat following a quiet week, with positioning frozen ahead of clearer signals on the Fed's rate trajectory. Commentary around a potential Warsh-led Fed is injecting an institutional-credibility variable into rates markets alongside conventional data dependency.

SPECIAL REPORT

AI Capex Cycle Enters Payoff Phase as Alphabet Lifts Spend to $205 Billion, Cloud Backlog Swells to $514 Billion

Wall Street strategists shift narrative from 'spending risk' to 'spending-to-earnings conversion' as hyperscaler backlogs, memory pricing and semicap records validate the infrastructure buildout

Alphabet's raised 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $205 billion arrived alongside a $514 billion Google Cloud backlog, reframing the AI investment debate around revenue conversion rather than balance-sheet strain. Strategists now argue spending is directly feeding earnings, a thesis reinforced by SK Hynix's blowout week, record Applied Materials revenue and Nvidia's growing role as system-wide financier of the AI supply chain.

SPECIAL REPORTBULLISH
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