JPMorgan told clients it has no clear endgame for oil markets as the conflict involving Iran continues to disrupt normal trade flows, and the bank said it has lost its prior baseline view on where prices and supply are headed. The uncertainty comes as Saudi Arabia pushes to export more crude through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint it had been trying to avoid, after its alternative East-West pipeline shut down.
The shift matters because the Strait of Hormuz carries a large share of global seaborne oil trade and sits at the center of the same regional tensions driving the conflict. Relying more heavily on that route raises the stakes if tensions escalate further. Separately, one investor disclosed a $2.6 million short position in the United States Oil Fund, a bet that prices may not hold their recent levels.
Refiners are being flagged by some analysts as potential winners of what is being described as a global fuel crisis, though which companies benefit depends on how long the disruption to established routes and pipelines lasts.