Bitcoin Faces 'Rektember' Test as Rate-Hike Risk Meets Seasonal Weakness

CoinDesk reported that bitcoin is entering what traders call 'Rektember,' a reference to September's historical record as a poor month for risk assets, and for bitcoin specifically. The report noted that rate-hike risk is compounding the usual seasonal weakness this year. That rate-hike risk is not abstract. On the same day, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said the central bank could raise rates if inflation stays high, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since January 2025. Bitcoin, like other risk assets, tends to struggle when rates and yields rise because higher-yielding, lower-risk alternatives become more attractive. What is unresolved is whether this year's seasonal pattern will hold. Past Septembers have not always been uniformly negative for bitcoin, and a shift in Fed tone or inflation data could change the rate backdrop before the month is out.