MARKET REPORT

Dollar Hits Two-Month High as US Flash PMI Signals Fastest Growth in Five Years

Stronger-than-expected September activity data revived inflation and rate-hike bets, pushing the dollar to its strongest level since July and sending Japanese bond yields to a 30-year high.

Executive takeaway

The U.S. flash PMI for September pointed to the fastest growth in more than five years, reviving inflation fears and pushing the dollar to a two-month high while Japanese 10-year bond yields hit a 30-year high on bets for more Bank of Japan rate hikes.

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Dollar and Yen Diverge as Rate Bets Widen. The dollar index has climbed to its strongest level in two months while the yen has stayed pinned near its lows, illustrating the diverging rate paths between the Fed and Bank of Japan that the PMI data reinforced.

Dollar and Yen Diverge as Rate Bets Widen

The dollar index has climbed to its strongest level in two months while the yen has stayed pinned near its lows, illustrating the diverging rate paths between the Fed and Bank of Japan that the PMI data reinforced.

Live prices for the ICE U.S. Dollar Index and USD/JPY exchange rate.

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<figure><a href="https://www.indy.finance/news/dollar-hits-two-month-high-as-us-flash-pmi-signals-fastest-growth-in-five-years"><img src="https://www.indy.finance/news/dollar-hits-two-month-high-as-us-flash-pmi-signals-fastest-growth-in-five-years/graphic.svg" alt="Dollar and Yen Diverge as Rate Bets Widen" width="1200" height="675"></a><figcaption>Dollar and Yen Diverge as Rate Bets Widen — <a href="https://www.indy.finance/news/dollar-hits-two-month-high-as-us-flash-pmi-signals-fastest-growth-in-five-years">Indy Finance</a></figcaption></figure>
A flash reading of U.S. business activity for September came in at its strongest pace in more than five years, according to survey data cited by Seeking Alpha. The number reinforced the view that the American economy is running hot even as the Federal Reserve weighs further rate moves, and it pushed the dollar to a two-month high against a basket of currencies. The move rippled into Asian markets. Japanese 10-year government bond yields jumped to a 30-year high on bets that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates again, while the yen held near its recent lows against the dollar. Other Asian currencies traded mixed as traders weighed the diverging paths of the Fed and Asian central banks. What remains unresolved is whether the PMI strength holds up in the final GDP data due later this year, or whether it proves to be a one-month blip. A hotter reading raises the odds the Fed holds rates steady for longer, which is why traders bid up the dollar rather than sold it.
What would change this view

This framing weakens if the final September U.S. GDP or ISM services data due in October come in materially below the flash PMI's implied pace of growth.

Wire sources cited

Produced automatically by the INDY NEWS Desk from the public wire sources cited above, and checked against them before publication. Market commentary, not investment advice.