SPECIAL REPORT

Scope Sees US Debt Hitting 160% of GDP Within a Decade as Trump Presses for Lower Rates

The rating agency's long-term warning lands as President Trump insists rates are 'too high' even as long-duration Treasury yields keep climbing.

Executive takeaway

Rating agency Scope projects US federal debt could reach 160% of GDP within ten years, a forecast that sits uneasily alongside President Trump's public argument that interest rates should be lower.

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Long bond yields climb despite Trump's rate push. The 30-year Treasury yield's recent path shows whether bond investors are actually pricing in the fiscal risk the story describes, rather than rewarding calls for lower rates.

Long bond yields climb despite Trump's rate push

The 30-year Treasury yield's recent path shows whether bond investors are actually pricing in the fiscal risk the story describes, rather than rewarding calls for lower rates.

Live 30-year Treasury yield (^TYX), referenced in the Motley Fool's reporting on long-duration yields rising despite Trump's comments.

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<figure><a href="https://www.indy.finance/news/scope-sees-us-debt-hitting-160-of-gdp-within-a-decade-as-trump-presses-for"><img src="https://www.indy.finance/news/scope-sees-us-debt-hitting-160-of-gdp-within-a-decade-as-trump-presses-for/graphic.svg" alt="Long bond yields climb despite Trump's rate push" width="1200" height="675"></a><figcaption>Long bond yields climb despite Trump's rate push — <a href="https://www.indy.finance/news/scope-sees-us-debt-hitting-160-of-gdp-within-a-decade-as-trump-presses-for">Indy Finance</a></figcaption></figure>
Scope Ratings warned that US government debt could climb to 160% of GDP within the next decade, according to Investing.com. The agency's projection adds to a growing body of long-term fiscal warnings aimed at Washington's deficit trajectory. The forecast arrives as President Trump has publicly argued that "interest rates are too high, they're not appropriate," per the Motley Fool. But long-duration Treasury bond yields have continued to rise rather than fall, a signal that bond investors are pricing in persistent fiscal risk rather than rewarding calls for easier policy. Rising yields on long bonds typically reflect concern about future debt issuance and inflation, not short-term Federal Reserve policy alone. What remains unresolved is whether Congress takes any near-term action on spending or revenue that would alter the debt trajectory Scope is modeling, or whether the 160% figure proves to be a worst-case scenario contingent on no policy change.
What would change this view

If a new congressional budget deal materially reduces projected deficits, or if long-duration Treasury yields reverse and decline meaningfully in the months following Scope's forecast.

Wire sources cited

Produced automatically by the INDY NEWS Desk from the public wire sources cited above, and checked against them before publication. Market commentary, not investment advice.