Soft payrolls print pushes Fed expectations lower as Hormuz standoff lifts oil and gold

A miss on US payrolls reset rate expectations at the start of the week, trimming the odds priced into markets for another Federal Reserve hike and helping Asian equities rally. European shares held steady rather than following through, with traders describing a wait-and-see stance ahead of the US inflation print. Commodities carried the geopolitical premium. Oil firmed as the stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian demands kept supply risk in focus, with analysts pointing to persistent supply-side uncertainty rather than demand strength as the driver. Gold held close to a seven-week peak as investors weighed the same Iran risk against a softer Fed outlook. Rates commentary flagged geopolitics as the dominant near-term input ahead of the US CPI release, with the data seen as the next test of whether the market's easing bias is justified. Positioning data pointed in the same risk-on direction: Goldman Sachs reported that hedge funds bought global equities for a second consecutive week.