Oil Caught Between Hormuz Supply Fears and Russian Sanctions Waiver Talk

Crude oil held close to a five-month high heading into the October 19 session, supported by attacks that investors see as a threat to supply moving through the Strait of Hormuz, a key Middle East shipping chokepoint. At the same time, a separate report said oil eased as markets assessed the possibility of a waiver on Russian energy sanctions, alongside broader Middle East supply risk. The two forces are pulling in opposite directions. Hormuz is the route for a large share of global seaborn oil, so any disruption risk there supports prices. A waiver that let more Russian barrels flow legally would add supply and work against that support. Investors are weighing both at once, which is why the price action looks indecisive even as the headline level stays elevated. What's unresolved is which risk dominates in the coming weeks: an actual supply disruption at Hormuz, or a policy decision on Russian sanctions that could add barrels back into the market.