CPI, PPI, wage growth and inflation expectations — the single input that moves everything else.
28 report(s) in the archive
A bank strategist says markets are pricing a Goldilocks outcome with little room for disappointment.
Deutsche Bank warned that current market pricing assumes a near-perfect, low-inflation, no-recession outcome, a caution echoed by a widely circulated Warren Buffett market comment.
Three separate August flash surveys point to the same pattern: output accelerating while price pressures ease, a combination investors have been waiting for.
August flash PMI readings from the US, UK and eurozone all showed stronger output growth alongside cooler inflation signals, the closest thing to a synchronized soft-landing print investors have seen this year.
Poland's KGHM posts higher second-quarter earnings on firm copper pricing while structural silver supply shortfalls point to operating leverage for miners; Cerrado Gold lifts output 35% but concedes cost inflation
KGHM reported stronger Q2 profit driven by robust copper prices, validating the industrial-metals thesis. Analysts point to a persistent silver supply-demand deficit as the next leg for precious metals producers, while Cerrado Gold's 35% production increase alongside rising costs illustrates the sector's central tension between volume growth and unit-cost discipline.
Global duration finds tentative footing after a punishing stretch, yet risk assets remain unsettled as Reserve Bank of Australia's Hauser warns policy could tighten again if inflation risks crystallise.
The intensity of the global bond selloff has eased, but equity markets are struggling to convert stabilising yields into conviction. RBA Deputy Governor Hauser's explicit warning that rates could rise again if inflation risks materialise underscores that the developed-market easing narrative is no longer one-directional.
Brightmine data show employers granting the smallest wage increases since last autumn, easing the services-inflation constraint that has kept UK rate cuts on a slow path
UK employers raised pay by the least in ten months, according to Brightmine, reinforcing evidence that a loosening labour market is finally translating into softer wage settlements — a precondition the Bank of England has repeatedly cited for further policy easing.
Soaring distillate prices are propagating through freight, agriculture and construction costs, delivering an unwelcome cost-push impulse ahead of November's midterm elections
A sharp rise in US diesel prices is rippling through the real economy, raising the risk of a renewed inflation impulse at a moment when bond markets are already demanding higher compensation for duration and policy risk.
First Philippine Holdings rejects the US buyout group's offer for its power unit, while Bangko Sentral tempers easing expectations by flagging persistent upside inflation risks.
Two Philippine developments converged: First Philippine Holdings rejected KKR's approach for First Gen shares, and the central bank guided to only gradual inflation easing with risks skewed to the upside — a combination that constrains both M&A repricing and rate-cut positioning.
Prediction-market pricing for a September tightening has plunged, but analysts warn positioning is vulnerable to a hawkish repricing if broadening earnings strength pressures the inflation path
Implied odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike have fallen to roughly 25%, a sharp dovish repricing that some strategists argue is complacent. With corporate earnings growth broadening beyond technology and financials positioned as beneficiaries, the risk of a hawkish surprise is being underpriced.
Walmart and Target results this week become the market's cleanest read on household resilience as persistent inflation, food-aid cuts and softening data surprises converge on the demand outlook.
Investors are positioning ahead of Walmart and Target earnings, viewed as the definitive checkpoint on U.S. consumer health. The reports land alongside a run of downside macro data surprises pressuring the dollar's momentum and mounting political friction over federal food-assistance reductions.
The Chicago Fed president says recent inflation prints show genuine improvement, a dovish tilt that lands as risk assets wobble and rate-sensitive sectors search for a policy anchor.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said recent inflation data shows improvement, marking one of the more constructive assessments from a sitting policymaker in recent weeks and reviving expectations for a more accommodative path.
Small-cap capital raises and narrative-driven equities absorbed the session's heaviest damage, while a valuation critique argued Rivian's market capitalization cannot be justified against Stellantis.
YXT.Com Group collapsed 35% on a dilutive equity offering and Trump Media & Technology fell 18% for the week, underscoring a punishing funding environment for story stocks. Separately, research questioned why Rivian commands a market value comparable to Stellantis, while microcaps including bioAffinity Technologies and RentGuarantor drew small-scale financing and stake-building activity.
Bullion consolidates historic highs while volatility drains out of both crypto and traditional markets, leaving U.S.-Iran risk and swelling sovereign debt as the market's main unpriced tail risks.
Gold is holding firmly above $4,400 an ounce after a softer inflation print strengthened the case for policy easing, even as realized volatility across crypto and TradFi collapses to unusually subdued levels. Strategists warn the calm masks live geopolitical and fiscal risks.
An inflation print that removed tail risk failed to generate upside momentum, shifting the burden of proof onto the Federal Reserve's communication calendar and the next labour market read.
Bitcoin drifted toward $63,500 after a consensus inflation report neutralised the immediate policy risk premium without providing a catalyst for fresh buying. Traders have rotated attention to Jackson Hole, upcoming payrolls and the next CPI release as the decisive tests for risk appetite. Rates strategists simultaneously argue inflation is both central and peripheral to the fixed income narrative.
Headline CPI up 0.1% and core up 0.2% match consensus, pushing September tightening odds lower and reinforcing the disinflation narrative underpinning risk appetite
July inflation data printed exactly in line with economist estimates, with headline CPI rising 0.1% and core CPI 0.2%. The absence of an upside surprise further reduced already-thin market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting, extending a multi-month arc in which benign price data has steadily removed policy tail risk from equity and credit valuations.
July CPI moderation drives a synchronized bid across European sovereign debt, while Goldman Sachs pencils in a 0.23% core PCE print — reinforcing the disinflation narrative underpinning risk assets.
Softer-than-feared July US inflation data triggered a decline in euro zone bond yields as global rate expectations reset lower. Goldman Sachs projects core PCE at +0.23% month-on-month, consistent with a gradual return toward target and supportive of a policy easing path.
Currency and bullion markets settle into a holding pattern ahead of a US inflation print that will shape the Federal Reserve's autumn policy path, with gold's historic price plateau signaling persistent hedging demand.
The US dollar traded mixed and gold held above $4,400 an ounce as investors positioned defensively ahead of the July consumer price index release. The muted cross-asset action reflects a market unwilling to take directional risk into a data point widely viewed as decisive for the Fed's next move.
Crude's longest winning streak of the season revives cost-push concerns just as traders brace for a pivotal U.S. CPI print, leaving European benchmarks in a defensive holding pattern despite a strong corporate earnings tape.
European bourses edged lower as a six-session advance in crude oil and looming U.S. inflation data kept risk appetite in check. The soft index tone masked a bifurcated earnings season, with guidance raises at Balfour Beatty, Bechtle and Schott Pharma offset by profit warnings and rate-driven pressure elsewhere.
Currency markets tread water into the U.S. inflation print while renewed friction around the Strait of Hormuz lifts oil, leaving macro desks positioned for a two-sided volatility event.
Asian currencies and the dollar were rangebound ahead of the U.S. consumer price report, with traders unwilling to commit ahead of a print that will shape Federal Reserve expectations. Simultaneously, escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude higher, reintroducing an energy-driven inflation channel just as payroll revisions raise questions about underlying labor market momentum.
Hecla Mining reports record free cash flow and a debt-free balance sheet alongside i-80 Gold's quarterly update, even as strategists warn that persistent shelter inflation could delay the rate cuts underpinning the gold trade.
Hecla Mining posted record free cash flow with a debt-free balance sheet, and i-80 Gold reported quarterly results, capping a period of exceptional operating leverage for precious metals producers. But the macro backdrop is turning ambiguous: analysis flagged this session argues that sticky shelter inflation in the forthcoming CPI print signals inflation persistence, which would push out the Federal Reserve easing path that has been the primary driver of the bullion rally.
President says he spoke with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh last week as strategists question whether a debt-laden Treasury can tolerate genuine price stability; PCE methodology critique adds to credibility debate
President Trump disclosed direct contact with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, sharpening focus on central bank independence just as Warsh recommits to a 2% inflation target. Analysts argue the arithmetic of US debt service makes sustained disinflation politically and fiscally improbable, while separate research questions whether the Fed's preferred PCE gauge is even measuring the economy accurately.