CPI, PPI, wage growth and inflation expectations — the single input that moves everything else.
54 report(s) in the archive
Rising long-term rates are being driven by forces beyond monetary policy, and strategists say 5% could be only the start.
The 10-year Treasury yield is breaking out to the upside, with strategists warning that 5% could be just the beginning of the move.
Traders priced in tighter Fed policy after Kevin Warsh's tough inflation talk, though the shift may not last.
Bond traders responded to Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole comments on inflation, but the market reaction has come with a caveat: 'for now.'
Kevin Warsh and other Fed voices argue a rate increase is still likely despite job losses in August, a break from the usual playbook.
Commentary from Kevin Warsh and wire analysis suggest the Federal Reserve may raise rates in September even though the August jobs report showed job declines, a combination that would surprise investors expecting cuts.
Yields held steady after the new Fed chair said inflation work isn't done, a sign investors believe his inflation talk without demanding more detail on rate path.
Kevin Warsh's first major public remarks as Fed chair reassured bond investors even though he offered only a little more guidance than his predecessor.
Oil fell on hopes for eased tensions around the Strait of Hormuz even as US stock futures slipped ahead of two closely watched releases.
World stocks edged higher while US futures fell as investors positioned for Nvidia's earnings and the PCE inflation data, with oil prices dropping on hopes of eased Hormuz Strait tensions.
Cash parked in money-market funds now yields about 3.5%, the same rate as inflation, leaving savers with a real return of zero.
A record $8.4 trillion is held in money-market funds paying roughly 3.5%, a yield that just offsets inflation and leaves investors with no real return.
A bank strategist says markets are pricing a Goldilocks outcome with little room for disappointment.
Deutsche Bank warned that current market pricing assumes a near-perfect, low-inflation, no-recession outcome, a caution echoed by a widely circulated Warren Buffett market comment.
Three separate August flash surveys point to the same pattern: output accelerating while price pressures ease, a combination investors have been waiting for.
August flash PMI readings from the US, UK and eurozone all showed stronger output growth alongside cooler inflation signals, the closest thing to a synchronized soft-landing print investors have seen this year.
Poland's KGHM posts higher second-quarter earnings on firm copper pricing while structural silver supply shortfalls point to operating leverage for miners; Cerrado Gold lifts output 35% but concedes cost inflation
KGHM reported stronger Q2 profit driven by robust copper prices, validating the industrial-metals thesis. Analysts point to a persistent silver supply-demand deficit as the next leg for precious metals producers, while Cerrado Gold's 35% production increase alongside rising costs illustrates the sector's central tension between volume growth and unit-cost discipline.
Global duration finds tentative footing after a punishing stretch, yet risk assets remain unsettled as Reserve Bank of Australia's Hauser warns policy could tighten again if inflation risks crystallise.
The intensity of the global bond selloff has eased, but equity markets are struggling to convert stabilising yields into conviction. RBA Deputy Governor Hauser's explicit warning that rates could rise again if inflation risks materialise underscores that the developed-market easing narrative is no longer one-directional.
Brightmine data show employers granting the smallest wage increases since last autumn, easing the services-inflation constraint that has kept UK rate cuts on a slow path
UK employers raised pay by the least in ten months, according to Brightmine, reinforcing evidence that a loosening labour market is finally translating into softer wage settlements — a precondition the Bank of England has repeatedly cited for further policy easing.
Soaring distillate prices are propagating through freight, agriculture and construction costs, delivering an unwelcome cost-push impulse ahead of November's midterm elections
A sharp rise in US diesel prices is rippling through the real economy, raising the risk of a renewed inflation impulse at a moment when bond markets are already demanding higher compensation for duration and policy risk.
First Philippine Holdings rejects the US buyout group's offer for its power unit, while Bangko Sentral tempers easing expectations by flagging persistent upside inflation risks.
Two Philippine developments converged: First Philippine Holdings rejected KKR's approach for First Gen shares, and the central bank guided to only gradual inflation easing with risks skewed to the upside — a combination that constrains both M&A repricing and rate-cut positioning.
Prediction-market pricing for a September tightening has plunged, but analysts warn positioning is vulnerable to a hawkish repricing if broadening earnings strength pressures the inflation path
Implied odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike have fallen to roughly 25%, a sharp dovish repricing that some strategists argue is complacent. With corporate earnings growth broadening beyond technology and financials positioned as beneficiaries, the risk of a hawkish surprise is being underpriced.
Walmart and Target results this week become the market's cleanest read on household resilience as persistent inflation, food-aid cuts and softening data surprises converge on the demand outlook.
Investors are positioning ahead of Walmart and Target earnings, viewed as the definitive checkpoint on U.S. consumer health. The reports land alongside a run of downside macro data surprises pressuring the dollar's momentum and mounting political friction over federal food-assistance reductions.
The Chicago Fed president says recent inflation prints show genuine improvement, a dovish tilt that lands as risk assets wobble and rate-sensitive sectors search for a policy anchor.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said recent inflation data shows improvement, marking one of the more constructive assessments from a sitting policymaker in recent weeks and reviving expectations for a more accommodative path.
Small-cap capital raises and narrative-driven equities absorbed the session's heaviest damage, while a valuation critique argued Rivian's market capitalization cannot be justified against Stellantis.
YXT.Com Group collapsed 35% on a dilutive equity offering and Trump Media & Technology fell 18% for the week, underscoring a punishing funding environment for story stocks. Separately, research questioned why Rivian commands a market value comparable to Stellantis, while microcaps including bioAffinity Technologies and RentGuarantor drew small-scale financing and stake-building activity.
Bullion consolidates historic highs while volatility drains out of both crypto and traditional markets, leaving U.S.-Iran risk and swelling sovereign debt as the market's main unpriced tail risks.
Gold is holding firmly above $4,400 an ounce after a softer inflation print strengthened the case for policy easing, even as realized volatility across crypto and TradFi collapses to unusually subdued levels. Strategists warn the calm masks live geopolitical and fiscal risks.
An inflation print that removed tail risk failed to generate upside momentum, shifting the burden of proof onto the Federal Reserve's communication calendar and the next labour market read.
Bitcoin drifted toward $63,500 after a consensus inflation report neutralised the immediate policy risk premium without providing a catalyst for fresh buying. Traders have rotated attention to Jackson Hole, upcoming payrolls and the next CPI release as the decisive tests for risk appetite. Rates strategists simultaneously argue inflation is both central and peripheral to the fixed income narrative.
Headline CPI up 0.1% and core up 0.2% match consensus, pushing September tightening odds lower and reinforcing the disinflation narrative underpinning risk appetite
July inflation data printed exactly in line with economist estimates, with headline CPI rising 0.1% and core CPI 0.2%. The absence of an upside surprise further reduced already-thin market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting, extending a multi-month arc in which benign price data has steadily removed policy tail risk from equity and credit valuations.